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Tom Wojcik’s report, with figures through September 26, traces the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure from oil prices and shipping to fertiliser, harvests and European fuel supplies. It describes a fragile ceasefire that failed and warns that food and heating pressures may deepen, while some effects and forecasts remain uncertain.
In a report updated with figures through September 26, Polish writer Tom Wojcik traces how the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz is feeding into oil prices, shipping, fertiliser supply and European energy risks. His analysis connects those pressures with other disruptions, including attacks on Russian refineries and a weak European potato harvest, while warning that the full effects on food supplies and winter heating have yet to arrive.
Wojcik writes that Iran has kept the Strait of Hormuz closed since March, following US and Israeli military operations against Iran that began in late February. He says tanker traffic through the strait has fallen by more than 90 percent. The International Energy Agency describes the disruption as the largest oil supply disruption the market has seen. The report says a fragile ceasefire briefly brought prices back to pre-war levels in early summer before breaking down.
Oil prices rose again in September: Brent was near $97 a barrel in early September, around $105 by mid-month and touched $108 on September 24, according to Wojcik. On September 22, Iran gave Washington a written proposal for a regional ceasefire of up to 60 days, a phased reopening of the strait and an end to the US naval blockade. Wojcik says Washington rejected it. The report also describes a detour through the Red Sea, where Houthi forces seized a key Yemeni port this month.
The article follows the shock into shipping and fuel markets. Wojcik reports that the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF rose more than 600 percent in the war’s first two months and was up more than 2,300 percent for 2026 by early September. Some supertanker daily rates reached about $860,000 on September 10, compared with less than $100,000 before the war. The fund’s manager said rates would fall if Hormuz reopened, according to the report.
How Fuel Pressures Reach Food
The report’s central point is that disruptions can compound across systems that depend on one another. Higher oil and shipping costs affect transport, while the Strait of Hormuz normally carries up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertiliser, Wojcik writes. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warns that shortages could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027.
Those effects may not show up immediately. Farmers and consumers can draw on crops planted before fertiliser supplies were disrupted, but delayed inputs cannot restore yields already lost. The World Food Programme estimates that sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity. That is a forecast cited by Wojcik, not a confirmed count of people already affected.
Fuel supply problems also reach households and businesses directly. In France, official figures cited in the report showed 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on September 20, up from 11 percent two days earlier. The government ruled out a national shortage. Wojcik says most of the affected stations belonged to TotalEnergies, where a price cap drew drivers as higher prices elsewhere encouraged them to buy there.
Europe Faces Added Supply Strains
Wojcik frames the story from Poland, which borders Ukraine and relies on coal and imported gas for heating. His report links the Gulf disruption with Russia’s war against Ukraine: Ukrainian drones have hit Russian refineries at least 70 times this year, roughly once every four days by the IEA’s count cited in the article. Russia’s refining output has fallen to a two-decade low, and Moscow has restricted fuel exports.
The report says US diesel passed $6 a gallon for the first time on September 10. It also describes a difficult season for European potato growers. After a continent-wide glut in 2025, growers in Belgium, France, the Netherlands and Germany planted 14 percent less, then faced five heatwaves and drought. Their growers’ organisation expects a harvest down 25 percent, according to Wojcik. In Belgium, the reported price for processing potatoes rose from €10 to €150 a tonne within days.
The food pressures follow an already severe baseline. Wojcik says 2025 was the first year in the Global Report on Food Crises with two confirmed famines, in Gaza and Sudan, while food assistance funding fell an estimated 59 percent from 2022 to 2025. These figures describe conditions before the report’s projected effects from the current disruption.
“Sustained high oil prices could push up to 45 million more people into acute food insecurity.”
— World Food Programme, as cited by Tom Wojcik
The Scale of Future Shortages
The report describes fast-moving markets and forecasts whose eventual effects are not yet known. It does not establish how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, whether a ceasefire proposal could be revived, or when tanker traffic might resume. The cited warning about food supplies extends into 2027, but the report does not give a final estimate of harvest losses attributable specifically to the closure.
Some local shortages also need careful interpretation. In France, the government ruled out a national fuel shortage, while the reported station outages were concentrated among retailers whose capped prices attracted extra demand. The article says the official count may understate gaps because stations are recorded as out only when every petrol grade or diesel is unavailable. The eventual scale of winter heating pressures in Poland and elsewhere is also not quantified in the material provided.
Ceasefire and Harvest Milestones
The next major developments are whether the Hormuz closure eases, whether Washington and Tehran resume talks, and whether the Red Sea route remains accessible. A reopening could reduce tanker costs, though the report does not specify how quickly fuel prices would respond. If the closure continues, the FAO’s warning points to closer attention on fertiliser availability and harvests through late 2026 and into 2027.
For European readers, upcoming indicators include fuel availability, winter energy supply and the final potato and grain harvest figures. Wojcik’s account provides a snapshot through September 26; it does not establish how those indicators will develop or what policy actions governments may take.
Key Questions
What is the main development in Wojcik’s report?
It traces the effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure across oil, shipping, fertiliser and food supplies, alongside fuel and harvest pressures in Europe.
Is France running out of fuel?
The report says the French government ruled out a national shortage. Official figures showed 15 percent of stations had run out of petrol or diesel on September 20, with outages concentrated at TotalEnergies stations.
What does the report say about food supplies?
The FAO warning cited by Wojcik says fertiliser scarcity could reduce yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. The eventual harvest impact remains unknown.
Source: hn
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